The Mavericks and Kings — two squads that look vastly different than they did at the start of the season — will meet in Sacramento on Wednesday, the 9 vs. 10 game of the West's NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner will advance to a win-and-get-in game on Friday against the loser of Tuesday's Warriors-Grizzlies game.
The Sporting News has you covered with the latest odds for this Western Conference clash. We'll also serve up the best bets and top player props from BetMGM, as well as our final score prediction.
Both Dallas and Sacramento have traded away franchise players this season. The Mavs sent Luka Doncic to the Lakers in the most stunning trade in NBA history, and the Kings shipped De'Aaron Fox to the Spurs in a more predictable deal. Still, these squads remain scrappy — and with multiple future Hall-of-Famers competing, this game should be far from boring.
Let's get to the odds for Mavs vs. Kings at Golden 1 Center and unveil our final score prediction and full betting recommendations for this NBA Play-In bout.
Mavs vs. Kings: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Kings -4.5 (-118) | Mavs +4.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Kings -200 | Mavs +165
- Over/under: O 216.5 (-105) | U 216.5 (-115)
Sacramento swept the regular-season series between these squads 3-0, most recently blowing the Mavs out 122-98 in Dallas (March 3).
Doug Christie's squad has gone 19-12 straight up as a home favorite this season, but just 12-16-3 ATS as a home fave. Jason Kidd's Mavs, meanwhile, have gone just 17-25 on the road.
Mavs vs. Kings best bets and final score prediction
This could be the final night of a season filled with suffering for Mavs fans. They've dealt with injuries aplenty, their GM trading away perennial All-NBA player and reigning Western Conference Finals MVP Luka Doncic, and now the riches-to-rags status of going from the Finals to the Play-In. With a single-game elimination L, the final act of the Nico Harrison tragedy will be complete in Dallas.
There are many reasons to take Sacramento here, even with Doug Christie having far less head coaching experience than Jason Kidd. The biggest advantage the Kings have is on the offensive side of the floor — Sac-town has capable scorers in the ever-clutch DeMar DeRozan, microwave-shooter Zach LaVine, and the always-electric Malik Monk. Dallas has Anthony Davis and what sometimes looks like an Island of Misfit Role Players.
The Kings also rebound well, thanks to Domantas Sabonis, and they take and make a ton of shots (they're top 10 in field goals attempted and made). Beyond that, they're the fourth-best free-throw shooting team in the NBA, so look for Sacramento to try to draw fouls and keep AD out of the interior with high screen-and-rolls. If Sac-town can dictate the pace and tire him out, this should be a relatively easy beam-lighter for the home squad.
The Mavs block shots, get to the line a bunch and maintain pretty good shooting ratios. They just don't have a go-to perimeter scorer or playmaker with Luka gone and Kyrie Irving injured. Doug Christie can throw doubles at AD and force the Mavs' ancillary players to beat the Kings. Is Naji Marshall capable of leading a team to the playoffs? Can Klay Thompson turn back the hands of time? Not bloody likely. King me.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Kings 118, Mavs 107 — Sacramento wins and covers (-4.5), while the score goes OVER the projected total of 216.5.
Kings vs. Mavs top player prop bet
Domantas Sabonis, F/C, Kings: OVER 13.5 rebounds (-120)
Sabonis is the best rebounder in the NBA, and he will be all over the glass in a must-win game against the dilapidated front court of the Mavs. This might be a bit trickier of a prop if Dereck Lively was healthy, but it's basically a layup with the young big out for the season.
And if you're worried about AD, don't be — over the past 10 head-to-head meetings between Domas and Davis, Domas has averaged 14.8 boards per game. The dude gets up for big matchups, and he will be all over the glass from the opening tip to the final whistle on Wednesday.
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