NBA championship prediction 2025: Why the Celtics will win the title over the Thunder, Suns

With the 79th season of the NBA finally upon us, this could be one of the best years yet for the Association. The league has it all — strong parity, superstars at every age, and power in the big markets. And betting on the 2024-25 NBA championship odds isn't just a fun exercise — it's a potentially lucrative investment. 

What's the best way to narrow down the choices on BetMGM online sportsbook, though? Is it better to go chalk, or identify value further down the futures board? Can the defending champion Celtics repeat against a healthier playoff field?

You've got questions, and the Sporting News' betting team has answers. Let's take a look at the 2025 NBA Finals odds board, and unveil our best bets to hoist the next Larry O'Brien Trophy.

NBA Championship Odds 2025

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

NBA championship 2025: Best bet

Boston Celtics (+325)

Look, it's not fun. It's not really a great value at just over 3-to-1 odds. It's not a head-turning prediction or a hot take. But picking the reigning champs as the best bet to win the 2025 Finals is the only call to make.

The Celtics were dominant last season, and the only thing that slowed down their record pace was rest when Joe Mazzulla realized the sheer distance between Boston and the rest of the pack in the second half of the regular season. Boston won the East by 14 games despite a late-season carousel of rest days for his stars. 

This season, the league will be less injured and the competition — at least, in theory — will be better, especially in the East. The Knicks powered up. The Sixers powered up. The Cavs got healthy. This is all good for the Celtics, who are running it back completely after going 16-3 en route to championship banner No. 18. 

Sure, the health of center Kristaps Porzingis is a concern. But that's why Boston has one of the most dependable veteran role-playing bigs in the league in Al Horford, also the quiet leader of the club. Boston also has above-average height at every main-rotational position besides center when KP is out. 

The Tatum and Brown connection is stronger than everyone outside of New England cares to believe. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday were arguably as valuable as any non-All-Stars not named Wemby last season. And players like Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard — each of whom have killer instincts — should continue to grow in this winning environment. 

Boston set records with a 122.2 offensive rating and 1.22 points per possession last season. The Celts outscored teams by an average of 11.34 points, fifth-best in NBA history. They finished 37-4 at TD Garden. And they're a year older and wiser. This squad might not beat its 2023-24 regular-season record, but it's easily the best bet to once again win it all in June. 

NBA championship 2025: Top value bet

Oklahoma City Thunder (+500)

The best team from top to bottom in the West, OKC has a very good chance of winning it all in 2025. Like Boston, the Thunder check a ton of boxes: star power, elite defense, insane depth, three-point shooting and strong coaching. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished as MVP runner-up to Nikola Jokic last season. Jalen Williams might be the most underrated role player in the league. The additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein were perfect fits for this squad, which already ranked as a stud defense. 

What's missing? Health. If Hartenstein's injury doesn't sideline him for longer than expected — or linger throughout the season upon his return — and everyone else remains relatively unscathed by the injury bug, reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault's Thunder can beat any team in the Association. 

NBA championship 2025: Best sleepers 

Phoenix Suns (+2000)

Putting the Suns at 200-to-1 odds and just barely inside the top 10 of the NBA Finals futures board seems hasty. Mike Budenholzer brings his NBA championship experience to a loaded roster in the Valley, and it's not difficult to imagine things actually working out for this team if it can finally stay healthy for an entire season. 

Phoenix has a .642 winning percentage against winning teams with its big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal all healthy. Its three-point shooting is as lethal as ever, thanks in large part to Grayson Allen's breakout. And it has an actual honest-to-goodness point guard again in Tyus Jones.

The Suns also benefit from the rest of the West contenders losing some steam in the 2024 offseason. Minnesota traded away Karl-Anthony Towns, Klay Thompson left Golden State, Paul George left L.A., LeBron is old, and Denver replaced Kentavious Caldwell-Pope with Russell Westbrook.

If it isn't OKC that comes out of the Western Conference, it seems like a solid bet that it will be Dallas or Phoenix. Since the Suns have the more attractive odds at +2000 compared to the Mavs' +1200, we're putting a modest value bet on KD and the boys. 

Milwaukee Bucks (+1400)

Don't forget about Giannis and company! Doc Rivers seemed like he was stuck in the middle of a bad 90s sitcom when he first arrived in Cream City in the middle of the 2023-24 season, but he settled in nicely after the All-Star break — even going 11-4 at one point.

Gary Trent Jr. was a nice addition to this Bucks' squad. But what Milwaukee needs more than anything is health — Giannis, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis all started off the 2024-25 campaign on the injury report. If they're all good to go by the holidays, don't be surprised if this team once again contends for a top seed and makes a run at the chip. 

NBA championship 2025: Best long shots

Memphis Grizzlies (+3500)

Ja Morant, one of the most dominating young guards of the 2020s, will look to put the past behind him and get Memphis back to the winning ways we came to expect from it under Taylor Jenkins.

Many of the pieces are there — a dead-eye shooter in Desmond Bane, a ruthless shot-blocker in Jaren Jackson Jr., a lockdown perimeter defender in Marcus Smart. The Grizzlies also have Rookie of the Year favorite Zach Edey, who should do all the big-man stuff JJJ isn't great at doing. 

The Grizz have strong scoring chops, surprisingly good shooting, elite defense, and moxie — nobody will want to play this team when the postseason rolls around. 

Indiana Pacers (+6600)

Somehow, someway, we keep overlooking Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers. Despite their unprecedented pace, their ability to move the ball well and still exhibit athleticism, and their midseason acquisition of Pascal Siakam last February, we still overlook Indy! 

Rick Carlisle's squad got to the inaugural NBA Cup against the Lakers last season, then made it to the Eastern Conference Finals against the eventual champion Celtics. If the sportsbooks are unwilling to even consider the Pacers as a contender, and their odds remain this long, we almost have to sprinkle in a small bet.

San Antonio Spurs (+15000)

C'mon, now — this is just fun. Buy a $5 lotto ticket and cheer your butt off for the most exciting basketball player in the world, Victor Wembanyama. He's a generational talent, and he has a lot more talent around him in Year 2 than he did in his rookie season.

You might have heard this story before: Tim Duncan helped San Antonio win a title in his sophomore season in the NBA. He also had a pretty good supporting cast, like Wemby right now. With veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes — and a boatload of untapped potential between Devin Vassell and rookie Stephon Castle, this is a dart-throw wager that would turn into an all-time great betting story.