The home stretch of the NFL playoff race is upon us, and the Sporting News has been having as much fun with our best bets and top props as Josh Allen has been having in the MVP race. The beat goes on as we surge toward Week 16 with another full slate on the schedule.
We stalled out a bit last week, for the first time in months (maybe we're more like the Lions than the Bills?). Still, our season-long numbers have been exceptional. The Sporting News' best bets column has gone 93-69-1.
MORE NFL: Week 16 odds, lines, totals | Updated power rankings
Here's the top moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on BetMGM and Caesars for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy four days of NFL football this weekend!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/unders | Player props
NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Bills -13.5 vs. Patriots (-130 on BetMGM)
The Bills have gone from 'smoldering-hot' to 'inferno,' becoming just the fifth team to score 30-plus points in eight straight games. Josh Allen looks like the runaway MVP, with multiple big highlight-reel plays, countless statistical accolades, and massive wins over the Chiefs and Lions.
As a native New Englander, lifelong Patriots fan, and someone who's been to multiple Pats games this season, take it from me: the Patriots are not good, and much of the time they don't even appear to be trying to score touchdowns when they get to the red zone. Jerod Mayo's team doesn't stand a chance against their division rivals, especially in Orchard Park.
New England averages 17 points per game on the season (second-worst), while Buffalo averages 31.8 (second-best). Their home/road splits point to an even greater disparity (Buffalo 35.9 PPG at home, New England 14.5 PPG on the road). Buy a half-point to ensure the 14-point cover, but this will most likely be a Bills win by at least 17.
SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 34, Patriots 17
Other Week 16 spreads worth a look: Ravens -6.5 vs. Steelers (-110 on Caesars); Panthers +4 vs. Cardinals (-110 on Caesars); Mini-parlay: Lions -2.5 at Bears and Bengals -2.5 vs. Browns (shop around)
NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Moneyline
49ers +105 at Dolphins (Caesars)
This week isn't exactly an all-you-can-bet buffet of tasty moneyline options, but we do like the 49ers to bounce back and outscore a struggling Dolphins offense. Tua Tagovailoa and company managed just 12 points against the Texans in Week 15, and they barely squeaked by a 3-9 Jets team at home two weeks ago.
Fred Warner and friends will be itching to get a W after a frustrating loss to the Rams in the elements last Thursday. Kyle Shanahan coming off a mini-bye against former Niners assistant Mike McDaniel and a soft Dolphins squad? Yeah, we'll take San Francisco.
The last time Shanny faced McDaniel (Dec. 2022), the Niners beat the 'Fins 33-17. Look for Brock Purdy to reestablish his connection with Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, as the Dolphins' slide continues and McDaniel's seat gets hotter.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 49ers 23, Dolphins 21
Other Week 16 moneylines to consider: Chargers -165 vs. Broncos (Caesars); Rams halftime and full-game moneyline (shop around)
NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Texans UNDER 21.5 at Chiefs (-110 at BetMGM)
The Chiefs might be without franchise player and back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes for the first time in a while, which has the Texans as road favorites early in the week. Capitalize now, because Kansas City isn't about to get rolled by an AFC foe at Arrowhead.
Maybe Houston will win this game, but it will probably need to be a dogfight victory. Kansas City's defense has been its top weapon all season — it ranks fifth in scoring D, allowing 18.5 points per game. Chris Jones and the Chiefs haven't let an opponent reach 20 points in four weeks, and the last three teams that visited Arrowhead averaged 16 PPG against them.
You've got a second-year QB in C.J. Stroud — with young wideouts and a banged-up Joe Mixon — traveling to the toughest stadium in the NFL for a cold-weather game in December. And Carson Wentz with this Chiefs coaching staff might be the best backup QB in the NFL, so they might milk the clock better than you expect. Take the high-value under on Houston's team total.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Texans 20
Other strong Week 16 over/under bets: Rams at Jets: OVER 47 (-110 on BetMGM); Vikings at Seahawks: OVER 42.5 (-110 on Caesars); Steelers at Ravens: OVER 45 (-110 on Caesars)
NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Top player prop
Target James Conner, RB, Cardinals at Panthers (rushing yards OVER)
Even before props go live for this game (still waiting as of Wednesday), we have Conner circled on our betting DayMinder. He's been the most steady veteran running back that nobody ever talks about, and he always seems to finish seasons strong for the Cardinals.
Look at Conner's past two weeks: 200 total rushing yards, nine catches on nine targets for 60 receiving yards, three total TDs. Now he gets to play a Panthers team that gets destroyed on the ground week in and week out!? The Cowboys' Rico Dowdle just racked up 149 rushing yards against them! Fire up Conner, even if his over/under is 99.5.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons vs. Giants: OVER 36.5 rushing yards (-110 on BetMGM)
This is our sneaky sleeper prop bet of the week. Second-year back Bijan Robinson remains the clear bell-cow of the Falcons' backfield — with 22-plus carries in three straight games — but Allgeier has quietly inserted himself into the picture more and more the past couple weeks.
In just the past two games, the third-year back has totaled 106 yards on 21 carries. That's good for over five yards per tote, even better than the 4.8 YPC he averages on the season.
The Giants have allowed 4.9 YPC this season, and 143.7 ground yards per game (both second-most in the NFL). Bijan should feast this weekend, but there will be enough yards leftover for Allgeier to eat for a third-straight week.
Other player props to consider: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions at Bears: OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-110 on BetMGM); Saquon Barkley (RB) and Jalen Hurts (QB), Eagles at Commanders: Both to score a touchdown (+140 on Caesars)
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