In order for the College Football Playoff to take off, it will need to have the upsets.
That is why March Madness works. Will the 12-team playoff field produce a few memorable shockers. We found two in 11 games – and they will be considered upsets by seed – in our bracket predictions for the 2024 tournament.
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We didn't pick an upset in the first round. We have the chalk – No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State – advancing to the quarterfinal rounds. That would not be great for the new setup. We would like to see No. 9 Tennessee in a tight one with the Buckeyes or No. 10 Indiana push the Irish to the limit in South Bend. We're also about to figure out how that home-field advantage works in the first round.
Inevitably, we came to an easy conclusion. Oregon has been the best team in the country this year, and we might get to see a rematch with the Buckeyes from their 32-31 thriller on Oct. 12. Georgia has played a tough schedule – and they have a negotiable path back to a third national championship shot in four years. Are you betting against Kirby Smart in this format? Here is a look at our predictions.
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College Football Playoff bracket predictions 2024
Round 1 picks
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
This could be a shootout if Clemson brings its “A” game, but only if the Tigers can establish a running game with Phil Mafah against a Texas defense that allows just 3.1 yards per carry. Texas is 0-2 when Quinn Ewers has a completion percentage of less than 60%. Can Clemson make enough plays in the secondary?
Pick: Texas
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Here is the best game of the first round. How does Ohio State – which leads the FBS in scoring defense that allows 10.7 points per game – bounce back after the loss to Michigan? The Vols have a power-rushing attack led by Dylan Sampson, and Tennessee is good on defense, too. There is a lot of pressure on Ryan Day here. How does a SEC school fare in Big Ten country in December? We can't wait to find out.
Pick: Ohio State
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
The College Football Playoff committee did the right thing by putting the Mustangs in, and now the challenge is facing a Penn State defense led by Abdul Carter. Kevin Jennings leads a Mustangs' offense that averages 38.5 points per game. Penn State counters with a power running game led by Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and the Mustangs allow 2.7 yards per carry. That will be the key early – and Beaver Stadium will be rocking. SEC schools will be watching SMU intently knowing they weren't let in. How will the Mustangs show up?
Pick: Penn State
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
An unexpected in-state battle with a wonderful strength-on-strength matchup. Will Indiana – led by Kurtis Rourke – be able to attack Notre Dame's secondary, led by Xavier Watts? The Irish have been arguably the best team in the FBS the back half of the season. In Notre Dame's only loss, Riley Leonard was not a factor in the running game. The Hoosiers have a chance to make more history with Curt Cignetti, but the Irish will thrive with the home-field advantage.
Pick: Notre Dame
Quarterfinal picks
No. 5 Texas vs. 4 Arizona State
The Sun Devils get a chance to prove it as the Big 12 champion, and they were as hot as any team in November. Cam Skattebo (1,568 yards, 19 TDs) needs to have success against the Texas' defensive front, and Arizona State's pass defense will face a challenge. Ewers will continue the hot hand, and Quentrevion Wisner should have success between the tackles against the Sun Devils.
Pick: Texas
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State
This would be a dangerous first-round game for Oregon – who beat the Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium in a wild back-and-forth where Dillon Gabriel had success in the vertical passing game. Will Howard played well in that game until the final sequence, and if the Buckeyes win that means the Michigan hangover is over. The winner of this game will be a popular pick to win the national championship.
Pick: Oregon
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State
Boise State – led by Ashton Jeanty – would be the higher seed. Would Spencer Danielson empty the playbook here in true Boise State fashion? The Broncos would more likely to try to grind out a victory against Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a strong ground attack, too, and the defense would need to create a few turnovers. This could be another Cinderella story for the program that perfected it, but we still like the Nittany Lions coming off a playoff win.
Pick: Penn State
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has time to recover from his injury, but he would have to watch the turnovers in this game. Notre Dame had a +16 turnover margin for the season, and the Bulldogs' running game would have to be on point around Trevor Etienne, too. The Irish would be a popular upset pick here, but it is tough to go against a well-rested Georgia team that Smart would have more than motivated to face the Irish. This will be the best game of the entire playoff, and the Bulldogs win in walk-off fashion.
Pick: Georgia
Semifinal picks
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Texas
Steve Sarkisian and Dan Lanning would make for a fantastic semifinal matchup, and Ewers and Dillon Gabriel did this when Gabriel was with Oklahoma last season. This would be a fast-and-furious take-the-over type game, and the Ducks should have success with Jordan James. He averaged 101 rushing yards with three TDs in the victories against Ohio State and Texas.
Pick: Oregon
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Penn State
The Nittany Lions would be playing loose here, and Drew Allar has a 54.2% completion percentage in the losses to Ohio State and Oregon. The Bulldogs' defense has had a few hiccups this season, but they can load up against the run in this matchup. We are curious to see how much Penn State would let it rip here after a few big wins with James Franklin, but Georgia has been there, done that. Their defense comes up with the stop in crunch time.
Pick: Georgia
CFP national championship picks
Oregon vs. Georgia (Atlanta)
Look at the paths and why they matter. Georgia would go through Notre Dame and Penn State, two physical defenses that would likely be in low-scoring slugfests. Oregon would have gone through two of the best defenses in the FBS in Ohio State and Texas, and they have proven they can do it against the Buckeyes. The coaching matchup between Smart and Lanning would be fascinating given how far the Ducks have come since the 49-3 blowout in Lanning's first game with Oregon on Sept. 3, 2022. This time, the offense is much better. Gabriel leads a high-flying Ducks' offense to its first national championship, and Lanning joins the national championship club.
Pick: Oregon
