Steph Curry and the Warriors look to close things out against Alperen Sengun and the Rockets in Game 6 of their first-round NBA playoff series on Friday. The game tips off around 9:00 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.
The Sporting News has deep-dived this pivotal Western Conference clash, and we've uncovered the best bets, top props and highest-value parlays from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Let's get right to the odds for Warriors vs. Rockets Game 6 at Chase Center, then reveal our final score prediction and full betting advice.
Warriors vs. Rockets: Spread, moneyline, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Warriors -4.5 (-115) | Rockets +4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Warriors -210 | Rockets +170
- Over/under: O 203.5 (-115) | U 203.5 (-105)
The Rockets enter Friday's contest as underdogs, as they have lost each of their past two games at Chase Center. They're now 11-9-1 ATS as an away underdog since the start of the season, after covering by a half-point in Golden State's 109-106 win in Game 4.
Houston blew the doors off Steph Curry and the Dubs 131-116 in Game 5, a rare playoff bludgeoning suffered by Steve Kerr's squad. Golden State is 27-17 at home this season, though, and everyone knows how potent Curry and Jimmy Butler have been in closeout games over the course of their careers.
Warriors vs. Rockets best bets and final score prediction
Can a miracle occur for Houston twice? Not likely. Curry and Butler combined to score just 21 points on 6-of-22 shooting in Game 5, which felt like a surprise gift for Ime Udoka's Rockets. Prior to that game, the pair had combined to average 49.5 points, 12 rebounds and 11.6 assists per game in closeout games throughout their careers.
The Dubs will do whatever they can to avoid a Game 7 in Houston, so look for Curry, Butler and company to come out shooting early and often in front of the Chase Center crowd. Letting a young and feisty Rockets squad break off two wins in a row to tie the series would be calamitous. So, just like Steph put Team USA on his back last summer, he will likely turn up the heat on Friday.
'The others,' as Shaq calls them, should also enjoy better games at home. Brandin Podziemski shoots much better at Chase Center (.456/.421/.865) than he does on the road (.438/.335/.690). Draymond Green and Moses Moody have vastly better shooting splits in San Francisco, too. And Kerr's core rotation has much more playoff experience than the vast majority of Houston's squad.
In fact, this marked the first playoff series for just about every Rockets core-rotation player besides Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. And there's no real way to accurately describe the nerves a young player might feel going into Chase Center to face the best shooter of all time.
Jalen Green has enjoyed one strong game in this series, and otherwise, he has been completely locked down by the elite perimeter defense of the Warriors. Amen Thompson has been similarly hot-and-cold, while Alperen Sengun has been mostly good but sometimes tentative with Defensive Player of the Year finalist Draymond guarding him.
In the end, Steve Kerr's squad has too much shooting, too much defense, too much experience and, more than likely, too much advanced preparation for this game. The sportsbooks will be rooting for Houston to pull off this game and force a Game 7 in H-town — we just flat-out don't see that happening.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Warriors 106, Rockets 101 — Golden State wins and just barely covers, while the score goes OVER the projected total of 203.5.
Warriors vs. Rockets top player prop bet
*The Stars Shine Bright* mini-parlay (+280)
— Steph Curry 20+ points, 5+ assists
— Jimmy Butler 20+ points, 5+ rebounds
By combining four alt-prop bets for Curry and Butler, we're getting a very winnable foursome of stat targets at +280 odds. We're talking about two of the most clutch postseason players of the 21st century going against one of the most inexperienced two-seeds of all time, so we love the value we're getting here.
Prior to Golden State's Game 5 disaster in Houston, Curry had a lifetime record of 22-13 in closeout games with averages of 28.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.9 assists. Butler was 10-13 in closeouts with per-game averages of 21.1 points, 6.5 boards and 4.7 dimes. These guys won't lay two eggs in a row with a chance to end things at home. Let's capitalize on this duo's historic track record of greatness and turn $40 into $152.
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