Broncos playoff picture: Denver's updated chances to make 2024 NFL playoffs in Week 16 vs. Chargers

Dan Treacy

Broncos playoff picture: Denver's updated chances to make 2024 NFL playoffs in Week 16 vs. Chargers image

The Broncos made Sean Payton one of the NFL's highest-paid coaches to get the most out of each roster. That certainly seems to be what the Super Bowl-winning coach has done in 2024.

Denver has secured its first winning season in eight years despite entering the year with low expectations, and the Broncos' playoff differential is the highest it's been since the franchise won Super Bowl 50 nine seasons ago.

The Broncos' Super Bowl season was the last time they made the playoffs, giving Denver the NFL's second-longest playoff drought behind only the Jets. That could change in Week 16, as Payton has the Broncos on the verge of a return to the playoffs that could only be called ahead of schedule. 

Here's an updated look at the Broncos' playoff chances and what they need to do to clinch. 

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Broncos playoff picture

AFC wild-card standings

SeedTeamRecord
5Ravens9-5
6Chargers9-6
7Broncos9-6
8Colts6-8
9Dolphins6-8
10Bengals6-8
11Jets4-10
12Browns3-11
13Jaguars3-11
14Titans3-11
15Patriots3-11
16Raiders2-12

The Broncos took a giant step toward the playoffs with their Week 15 win over the Colts, moving into the No. 6 seed in the AFC and gaining another game of separation between themselves and the Colts as well as the Dolphins.

Because of the win, the Broncos faced a win-and-in scenario on Thursday. They didn't get it, blowing an 11-point third quarter lead and missing an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth.

While Denver is still very much in position to make the playoffs due to a sizable lead over the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals in the AFC wild-card race, the Broncos' chances of earning the No. 6 seed or better took a hit on Thursday. The Chargers officially claimed the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, so Denver would have to gain a game on its AFC West counterparts to jump them in the standings.

The Broncos can still clinch a playoff berth in Week 16 with losses by the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals. If not, a win would be enough in Week 17. 

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Broncos remaining schedule

WeekDateMatchupTime (ET)
17Dec. 28at Bengals4:30 p.m.
18Jan. 5vs. ChiefsTBD

The Broncos don't have any layups down the stretch, as the Chargers are desperate after a pair of losses while the Bengals' offense remains red hot even if the team itself is vulnerable. 

If it happened to come down to Week 18 for Denver, which isn't likely at this point, it's possible the Broncos would face a Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City could lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed as soon as Week 16, so sitting key starters could be an option for Andy Reid by the time the final game of the season arrives.

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Broncos updated playoff chances

ESPN's Football Power Index rated the Broncos' playoff chances at 93 percent entering Week 16, indicating Denver is highly likely to snap its playoff drought and earn a wild-card berth.

MORE NFL WEEK 16: 

Dan Treacy

Dan Treacy Photo

Dan Treacy is a content producer for Sporting News, joining in 2022 after graduating from Boston University. He founded @allsportsnews on Instagram in 2012 and has written for Lineups and Yardbarker.