Would you rather beat Michigan or win a national championship?
Outside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center, the Ohio State-fan generated answer is probably at least 60% in favor of "Beat Michigan” at the bus stop, the dentist's office or the local restaurant in central Ohio. The Buckeyes have not beaten the Wolverines since 2019, and the pain of a 13-10 loss on Nov. 30 – the fourth straight loss to Michigan – creates a seemingly distorted ethos in and around the outskirts of Interstate 270.
Other fan bases can say they will go 1-11 as long as they beat their rival. At Ohio State, it is a genuine sentiment. Maybe too genuine in the new era of college football that is suffering from rapid "NFL-ification." Would a national championship in the first 12-team College Football Playoff – the program’s first since 2014 – offset that loss to a bitter rival?
That narrative is what makes the boom-or-bust nature of the matchup between No. 8 Ohio State (10-2) and No. 9 Tennessee (10-2) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday so interesting.
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Win, and the Buckeyes get a rematch with No. 1 Oregon (13-0) in the quarterfinals. Ohio State is equipped to win a national championship – and that would solidify Ryan Day as the long-term coach of the Buckeyes.
Lose, and this is a loosely-based repeat of the 1995 season when the Buckeyes were 11-0 before losses to Michigan in the regular-season finale and Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. Only this team has a $20 million receipt in the Name, Image and Likeness department.
This is the challenge inside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center for the Ohio State players and coaches. It is no longer beat Michigan or bust. But how many wins in the playoff re-center the program?
"It hurts man," Ohio State quarterback Will Howard said Monday when asked about that loss to the Wolverines more than two weeks after the fact. "I'm not going to lie. We all still feel it, but we moved on. We're moved on now."
Will Ohio State move on from Michigan?
Ohio State senior receiver Emeka Egbuka was one of several players who bypassed the 2024 NFL Draft for one more shot at Michigan in 2024. Egbuka had four catches for 51 yards in the loss.
"We've cultivated a really good culture here to where we're able to have tough conversations and hold each other accountable, not only coaches to players but players to coaches," Egbuka said Monday.
Those meetings had to reveal that the Buckeyes tried too hard to bully-ball the Wolverines. The running game managed just 17 carries for 41 yards between the tackles, where Michigan defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant were waiting. The game plan didn’t work against a three-TD underdog, and an ugly brawl broke out afterward when Michigan players tried to plant a flag at midfield. It was an objective disaster for the Buckeyes on and off the field. Were those meetings intense?
"No," Howard said before a self-correction. "Yes. It was tough. It sucked, yeah."
Day is now 1-4 – a 20% winning percentage – against Michigan since taking over for Urban Meyer. He is 65-6 – a 91.5% winning percentage – against everyone else. Yet there is a sense that a loss to Tennessee would put his job in jeopardy heading into 2025. This is the math lesson when it comes to Ohio State football. In this equation, 91.5% against everybody else is less than 20% against Michigan.
"If we're going to move forward, then there has to be accountability between the players and the coaches,” Day said at his press conference Wednesday. "That's about trust. There has been open dialogue there, both sides understanding that we're all looking to do the same thing here."
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Would a CFP loss doom Ryan Day at Ohio State?
Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork answered that question in an appearance with 97.1 The Fan on Dec. 12. Day is Ohio State’s coach, and Bjork surprised listeners with an answer that moved toward de-emphasizing The Game against Michigan.
"This whole mentality about – and look, we live it, and we sign up for it – but if you get fixated on the end result and not have the process fully baked every time, you're going to lose," Bjork said. "The mindset's going to lose because you're only fixated on one thing.
"So what we have to do is this whole 'championship or bust' mentality, you want that as the goal, but it has to be about the process," Bjork said. "We have to maybe change some conversations a little bit. I think we need to maybe just approach things a little bit differently."
This is a logical response with an illogical conclusion. Bjork was the athletic director at Ole Miss from 2012-19. The Egg Bowl with Mississippi State makes the great rivalry montage, but it is nowhere near as large as Ohio State-Michigan. Bjork was the athletic director at Texas A&M from 2019-24 before the Aggies’ series with Texas was renewed.
Maybe he is right – but the majority of the Ohio State fan-base is going to need more time. This will never be the Ten-Year War again, but not beating Michigan for five years?
We mentioned that 1995 season. The Buckeyes lost 31-23 to Michigan in the regular-season finale. "Biakabatuka" is still considered a curse word in Columbus. Then, Peyton Manning-led Tennessee won a 20-14 slugfest at the Citrus Bowl. Ohio State coach John Cooper coached five more seasons after that and was 1-4 against the Wolverines. He finished 2-10-1 against Michigan, which is mentioned more than his 109-33-4 record at Ohio State against everyone else. In that equation, 76% was less than 19%.
Day will be Ohio State's coach in 2025 unless something drastic happens – and it would be more than just losing to the Volunteers in the first round.
Will a victory against Tennessee change narrative?
On Wednesday, Day was asked about the mental preparation for players in these high-level games, and his answer was telling.
"Sometimes when we try to play out a game or pre-determine what's going to happen, you can get yourself a little bit sideways," Day said.
Ohio State did that with Michigan at every level. The pressure of that game has become suffocating, and Tennessee offers a chance for a different outcome. What if Ohio State wins convincingly? That scenario is getting the least run right now – perhaps because it seems less likely than the Volunteers barging into Ohio Stadium and pushing the Buckeyes around. Yet is a plausible first-round outcome given Ohio State is a touchdown favorite.
Day has re-shuffled an offensive line that lost center Seth McLaughlin and tackle Josh Simmons to season-ending injuries. The Buckeyes have the nation’s best scoring defense (10.9 ppg.) and three future NFL receivers in Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The key is Howard – who has mixed high-level play with inopportune turnovers. He had a season-low 57.6% completion percentage and two interceptions in the loss to Michigan.
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He was asked if the Buckeyes need to play "loose" in the playoff.
"Who's been saying that?" Howard asked back before a longer answer.
"I don't listen to anything," he said. "I guess playing loose for me is kind of not thinking about things and letting it rip. When we're able to get out on the perimeter and I'm able to get the ball in our playmakers' hands and have a high completion percentage, that's when we have a lot of success."
That should be the game plan for the College Football Playoff, and it is good enough to win a national championship. Day insists the practice energy and mojo have been good. There is no way to calculate that until the Buckeyes and Vols meet on Saturday. Losing to Michigan before a first-round exit is not a scenario that has happened to Ohio State yet; not in front of a crowd that might have a higher-than-expected percentage of Tennessee fans at The Shoe.
That is a scenario 0% of Buckeyes fans envisioned three weeks ago.
"We're not going to swing and miss by not being aggressive," Day said. "We're going to be aggressive. We're going to go after these guys and make sure we're knocking back the line of scrimmage."
