The SEC went from demanding five playoff teams to hoping four teams to settling for three teams heading into Rivalry Week.
What is the issue with a 16-team conference? Teams such as Florida, Oklahoma and Auburn – who had brutal conference schedules – can still pull off an upset with home-field advantage. Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M suffered their third losses the hard way, and that might make it tough for the Rebels and Crimson Tide to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field with just two weeks remaining in the 2024 college football regular season.
Florida beat Ole Miss 24-17 at The Swamp on Saturday. The Rebels were 3 of 14 on third down and had three turnovers, which likely iced Lane Kiffin's chances for a playoff run.
Alabama's uneven season continued in a 24-3 road loss at Oklahoma – which gave the Crimson Tide their third road loss of the season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Jalen Milroe threw three interceptions, and the Sooners picked up a signature home victory to build on in their first SEC season.
No amount of politicking will save these teams unless the carnage continues in the other conferences on Rivalry Week and conference championship Saturday. Suddenly, Texas, Georgia and Tennessee are the best bets from a conference with no dominant team.
Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here is how that looks heading into Rivalry Week.
MORE: SEC title game scenarios | Big 12 | Big Ten | ACC
Moved in: Tennessee, Arizona State, SMU
Dropped out: Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
Sporting News
No. 1 Oregon (11-0, Big Ten champion)
Oregon reserved a spot in the Big Ten championship game – but Ohio State likely will be favored if the teams meet in a Big Ten rematch at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ducks will remain No. 1 in the latest set of College Football Playoff rankings after a bye week, and Washington will have their attention. The Huskies have won the last three meetings by three points apiece. Dillon Gabriel has 14 TDs and three INTs at Autzen Stadium. Oregon should finish off an unbeaten regular season under third-year coach Dan Lanning.
No. 2 Texas (10-1, SEC champion)
Texas' strength of victory has been challenged, but the Longhorns still control their destiny in the SEC – and perhaps College Football Playoff – race. Texas beat Kentucky 31-14. Quinn Ewers passed for 191 yards and two TDs. He averages 233.3 yards per game with nine TDs and no interceptions in three games since the Longhorns' second bye week. Texas can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a victory against rival Texas A&M in the teams' first matchup since 2011. A victory would likely lock up a playoff spot, too.
3. Miami (10-1, ACC)
The Hurricanes need a victory against Syracuse to clinch their spot in the ACC championship game – which would set up a matchup against SMU. Miami will be higher in the CFP rankings than the Mustangs for now – and that conference championship game would pit two of the best scoring teams in the country against each other. Miami averages 44.8 points per game. SMU averages 39.3 points per game. Would that be the most-exciting game of conference championship weekend?
No. 4 Arizona State (9-2, Big 12)
Behold the late-season darling. Arizona State beat BYU 28-23 after a bizarre finish in which fans stormed the field before the game was over – and the Cougars got to attempt a last-second Hail Mary that nearly worked. Cam Skattebo had 28 carries for 147 yards and three TDs against the Cougars. Arizona State has won four straight games heading into the Territorial Cup against Arizona. The Sun Devils control their destiny in the Big 12 championship race.
MORE: Arizona State survives wild final second against BYU
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Rivalry Week:
No. 12 Boise State (10-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (10-1, Big Ten at-large)
Ohio State gave Indiana a 38-15 reality check, and quarterback Will Howard (22 of 26, 201 yards, 2 TDs, INT) continued his workman-like play against the Hoosiers. The wild part here is the Buckeyes would be the No. 1 overall seed with a victory against the Ducks in a Big Ten championship rematch. Michigan, of course, comes first. The Broncos beat Wyoming 17-13 to maintain their spot as the projected Group of 5 champion, and Ashton Jeanty bolstered his Heisman Trophy campaign with 20 carries for 169 yards and a touchdown. Boise State closes the regular season against Oregon State on Friday.
No. 11 SMU (10-1, ACC at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (10-1, Big Ten at-large)
The Nittany Lions shook off Minnesota 26-25. Penn State put the Gophers away with a game-ending drive that featured a fake punt and a second fourth-down conversion. James Franklin deserves credit for those crunch-time calls, and the Nittany Lions can secure a playoff spot and probable home game with a victory against Maryland. SMU clinched its spot in the ACC championship game with a 33-7 victory at Virginia. SMU allowed just 173 yards. Miami remains our pick to win the ACC, but the Mustangs could sneak through as an at-large team with two losses if we reward teams for making the conference championship round ahead of three-loss teams.
No. 10 Tennessee (9-2, SEC at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (10-1, Independent)
Notre Dame dismantled undefeated Army 49-14 at Yankee Stadium. Jeremiyah Love (7-130, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that piled up 273 yards, and the Irish did not have a turnover. The Irish have made just three of their last 10 field goals – which could be a problem in the playoff. The Volunteers cycled back into the 12-team field after the Ole Miss and Alabama losses. Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0, and Nico Iamaleava (17 of 23, 209 yards, 4 TDs) had his best game this year. If the Vols avoid an upset against Vanderbilt, then they would earn a trip to South Bend.
No. 9 Indiana (10-1, Big Ten at-large) at No. 8 Georgia (9-2, SEC at-large)
The Hoosiers slide to a No. 9 seed after the loss at Ohio State, but their playoff path opened with all the SEC losses in Week 13. We think this is the compromise between having one loss and not earning a victory against a team that is in the top 25. Georgia beat UMass 59-21 in a matchup where Carson Beck (20 of 31, 297 yards, 4 TDs) and Nate Frazier (21-136, 3 TDs) both popped off. This gives the SEC one home game in the first round, and Georgia has a strong strength-of-schedule argument.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Iowa State (9-2, Big 12)
Iowa State is back in the Big 12 championship hunt and almost controls its own destiny after knocking off Utah 31-28. Carson Hansen (14-57, 2 TDs) scored the game-winning touchdown with 1:31 remaining, and somehow the Cyclones have managed to keep their Big 12 championship game hopes alive heading into a home matchup against Kansas State.
BYU (9-2, Big 12)
The Cougars' drop continues, but they could get a rematch with Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. Colorado lost 37-21 to Kansas, which gave the Buffaloes a second conference loss. BYU, however, needs to beat Houston and have either an Iowa State loss or a Arizona State loss in order to reach the Big 12 championship game.
Clemson (9-2, ACC)
The Tigers beat Wofford 51-14. Clemson has not beat a ranked team and is locked out of the ACC championship game if Miami beats Syracuse in Week 14. Two-loss teams still have a chance, however, and the season-finale against South Carolina is one of the best games of Rivalry Week. Dabo Swinney's team isn't quite dead yet.
Texas A&M (8-3, SEC)
The Aggies lost to Auburn 43-41, and they have the least-appealing resume among the three-loss SEC teams. Texas A&M, however, still has a direct path to the CFP if it beats Texas and Georgia the next two weeks.
