It's a new era of Falcons football, as Michael Penix Jr. is set to replace Kirk Cousins as Atlanta's quarterback against the Giants on Sunday.
While most in-season quarterback changes come either early in the season or from teams who aren't contending — see recent moves by the Browns and Titans — Penix is being thrust into a winnable division race.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 16
The Falcons have slipped behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South standings, but their schedule and a favorable tiebreaker situation make it realistic for Atlanta to still win a division title in coach Raheem Morris' first season.
Here's a look at the Falcons' updated playoff chances and how they can win the NFC South.
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Falcons playoff picture
NFC South standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
| 1 | Buccaneers | 8-6 |
| 2 | Falcons | 7-7 |
| 3 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 4 | Panthers | 3-11 |
The Falcons escaped with a win over the Raiders in Week 15, but they still trail the Buccaneers by a game in the NFC South. Atlanta does, however, have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Tampa Bay after winning both matchups earlier in the season. Had the Buccaneers not squandered a late lead over the Falcons on "Thursday Night Football" in Week 5, the division race could be all but over.
Instead, the path for the Falcons is clear: they need to gain one game on the Buccaneers over the final three weeks of the season, and they need Tampa Bay to lose at least once to make it possible.
The Falcons face the Giants and Panthers at home in the final three weeks, but they have a tough matchup against the Commanders in a Week 17 battle of the top two Heisman Trophy vote-getters from 2023. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, don't face another winning team, as they finish their season with the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints.
MORE: Why the Falcons benched Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr.
NFC wild-card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Vikings | 12-2 |
| 6 | Packers | 10-4 |
| 7 | Commanders | 9-5 |
| 8 | Seahawks | 8-6 |
| 9 | Falcons | 7-7 |
| 10 | Cardinals | 7-7 |
| 11 | 49ers | 6-8 |
| 12 | Cowboys | 6-8 |
| 13 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 14 | Bears | 4-10 |
| 15 | Panthers | 3-11 |
| 16 | Giants | 2-12 |
The Falcons aren't out of the NFC wild-card race at 7-7 and could still sneak in if they win out, particularly with a game against the Commanders still on their schedule, but their path to an NFC South title is likely easier.
Should Atlanta and Tampa Bay both win out, it's realistic for the Falcons to earn a wild-card berth at 10-7.
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Falcons remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
| 16 | Dec. 22 | vs. Giants | 1 p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 29 | at Commanders | 8:20 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 5 | vs. Panthers | TBD |
The Falcons have a favorable schedule down the stretch, as they face the Giants and Panthers, who entered Week 16 with a combined 5-23 record. Between those matchups is a road date with the contending Commanders, however.
The Buccaneers close out their season against three sub-.500 teams, so the Falcons won't be able to take anything for granted.
Falcons updated playoff chances
ESPN's Football Power Index rates the Falcons' playoff chances at 21 percent, with a 15 percent chance to win the NFC South.
Atlanta's less than 1-in-5 chance of winning the division is likely due in part to the Buccaneers' light schedule down the stretch, so a Tampa Bay upset could jolt the Falcons' chances.
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