Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz roundtable: Predictions, expert picks & more for boxing clash between YouTuber & MMA fighter

Daniel Yanofsky

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz roundtable: Predictions, expert picks & more for boxing clash between YouTuber & MMA fighter image

Following one of the biggest fights in boxing in Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford, Jake Paul is back. “The Problem Child” faces MMA fighter Nate Diaz in a 10-round catchweight bout on Saturday.

The fight inside the American Airlines Center airs on DAZN and ESPN+ PPV.

Paul looks to rebound following the first loss of his career against Tommy Fury. It was the first time he fought a legitimate boxer, though he is 4-0 against MMA fighters. The YouTuber is the heavy favorite heading into the bout and is ready to once again have the spotlight on him.

Diaz enters the boxing ring following a 15-plus-year MMA career. The Stockton, Calif. native has competed against some of the best MMA fighters in the world, leaving the cage with plenty of scars and forcing his opponents to bleed. The underdog, Diaz is ready to get paid and fight, just as he always has done.

MORE: Join DAZN to watch Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

“I always want to fight people who everyone thinks will whip my a—,” Diaz said via Yahoo Sports. “So I have to show them that’s not true.”

Who will walk out of Texas the winner? Are influencers competing in boxing bouts here to stay, or should they go away? Sporting News writers Andreas Hale, Tom Naghten, Ben Miller and Dan Yanofsky joined forces to break down all things Paul vs. Diaz:

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz predictions, expert picks

Andreas Hale, Combat Senior Writer

It's not a matter of whether Jake Paul will win, it's more about when the fight will end. Paul is clearly the better boxer, while Diaz's MMA striking won't translate to boxing. He's also the bigger, stronger, and younger fighter. Everything doesn't compute to Nate Diaz winning unless he submits Jake Paul with a triangle. Since that won't happen, what will likely end up being the finish is a sequence where Paul lands a big shot and then follows up with a barrage of punches.

Diaz won't be terribly hurt, but because he's not defending himself the referee will jump in and stop the fight. Diaz can save face by saying he didn't get knocked out, while Paul will state the referee saved Diaz from getting hurt. It will be on to the next one.

Pick: Jake Paul via TKO

MORE: Sign up to watch Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz on ESPN+

Ben Miller, Boxing Writer

It's difficult to make a case against the more experienced boxer when their opponent has never stepped in a boxing ring professionally before. Jake Paul has identified Nate Diaz’s unquestionable steel and durability during the build-up, and those qualities make it likely that he will take the fight to the scorecards.

Pick: Jake Paul via unanimous decision

Tom Naghten, SN Australia Senior Editor

Making a prediction for a fight in which one side has never boxed professionally is always tough, but I’m going to use Jake Paul’s bout with Anderson Silva to guide my choice. While the former UFC middleweight champion was much older than Nate Diaz is, Silva's a lot bigger, had superior striking, and could lean on some solid experience in the boxing ring.

When Paul fought Silva, "The Problem Child" scored a late knockdown to swing the cards in his favor. Expect a similar story this time, with Paul banking a majority of his rounds early on before possibly holding off a fast-finishing Diaz.

Pick: Jake Paul via unanimous decision

Daniel Yanofsky, Combat Editor

On paper, this fight is as one-sided as one can imagine. Despite only facing one pro boxer in his career, Paul has experience in the ring, unlike MMA favorite Nate Diaz. For all we know, Diaz may try and kick him or submit Paul out of habit. However, if there is one thing we know about Diaz: He can take and give a punch better than anyone. In his UFC career, Diaz landed 4.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 3.77 per minute. He has only lost via knockout twice, and will always come forward, no matter how bloody he gets.

Paul has knockout power, as seen by his four wins via the power punch and the one knockdown he landed against Tommy Fury. Paul badly needs a win after losing against Fury, with his team teasing he could retire with a loss. Paul will come out guns blazing and look to take Diaz out fast. While Diaz will last a while for a good payday, Paul is on a mission. Either he knocks Diaz out, or the referee will end the fight.

Pick: Jake Paul via TKO


Thoughts on cross-fighting/YouTuber’s boxing?

Andreas Hale: Everything is pro wrestling, and I'm for anything that adds more eyeballs to the sport in a social media era where it takes more than just being a good fighter to get over with fans. Fighting is a universal language where even a bad fight can be fun, so this doesn't bother me at all as long as fighters with relatively the same skill level are competing.

Ben Miller: To attempt an apologist angle rather than instinctive weariness: There can be something of the spirited charm and proud enthusiasm of amateur shows about certain fights these events produce. A humming concern before each of them, as ever, is that of the worst outcome being dangerous rather than merely risible contests.

MORE: Nate Diaz likes to fight and that's bad news for Jake Paul

Tom Naghten: Overall, I can’t hate on the YouTuber/influencer boxing phenomenon. Ultimately, it’s exposing new fans to the sport and giving fighters another avenue to get paid. If there is a problem, it’s the potentially dangerous mismatches we have seen at times, although that falls at the feet of the commissions sanctioning the bouts rather than those taking part.

Daniel Yanofsky: It's not everyone’s cup of tea and for good reason. There's tag team boxing, and some influencers have not taken the fights as seriously as they should. However, one shouldn't deny the attention they have brought to a sport that has needed it. People tune in to watch people fight via social media (Slap Fighting) or live all the time, and this adds to it. Plus, Paul’s influence in helping boxers gave fans Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano. That is a win in my book.


Should Jake Paul still be considered the Pound-4-Pound Boxing YouTuber with a win?

Andreas Hale: If we are categorizing Tommy Fury as a YouTuber, then no. But if we aren't (and we shouldn't), then Paul is absolutely the best P4P boxing YouTuber regardless of what KSI has done. If KSI manages to pull off a shocker and beat Fury, then we can have a different conversation. Until then, Jake Paul is #1.

Ben Miller: Irrespective of the somewhat farcical official outcome of the fight, KSI’s record was hardly embellished by beating Joe Fournier. Jake Paul emerged with more credit for losing via points to a relatively active boxer in Tommy Fury, but KSI can potentially move above him if he avoids the same fate.

MORE: With a loss to Nate Diaz, would Jake Paul retire from boxing?

Tom Naghten: Is Tommy Fury considered a YouTuber? If so, Jake Paul is not the pound-for-pound best in the influencer boxing scene. Regardless, Paul deserves plenty of credit for the work he has put in and the improvements he has made along the way. And for the record, Paul knocks KSI out if they ever fight.

Daniel Yanofsky: Plenty of YouTubers (who still create content) give Jake Paul a run for his money, from KSI to Salt Papi. However, the Paul brothers are the ones who have popularized influencer boxing into what it is today, especially Jake. He has appeared on various platforms (ESPN, Showtime, DAZN) and competed against the best in combat sports. Tommy Fury shouldn’t be considered a YouTuber but, if he beats KSI, or vice versa, we may have a different conversation. For now, you can’t deny Paul’s drawing power and skills.

Daniel Yanofsky