Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Europa League semifinal first leg

Jose Mourinho and AS Roma are in the hunt for a second consecutive European trophy as they meet German side Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg of their Europa League semifinal matchup.

Roma won the Europa Conference League last season in the competition's inaugural final, topping Scottish club Rangers to lift the trophy. They sit outside the European places in the Serie A table, so winning this tournament may be their only route to returning next year. 

They are winless over their last four matches, a tough stretch which includes games against both Milan clubs and Atalanta.

Leverkusen are in a similar situation, barely hanging on to the final European place in the German top flight standings. A positive result in the Europa League semifinal could be just what the doctor ordered to energise their final domestic push.

MORE: Jose Mourinho career trophies won: Honours with Real Madrid, Inter, Chelsea and others

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen match facts

• Date: Thursday, May 11
• Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Fri, May 12)
• Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome, Italy)
• Official: Michael Oliver (ENG)
• Last meeting: Roma 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Nov. 4, 2015 | Champions League)

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+220)
• Score prediction: Roma 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen are in good form, but their loss to Cologne last time out was a setback in the late-season push for European qualification, and they have just one win in their last four league games after a five-match winning streak. Their opponents, meanwhile, are struggling in league play of late, but have failed to win just once at home in European action.

There's reason to believe both sides can put up a fight, so a low-scoring first-leg draw is the likely outcome.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen best bet

• Pick: Under 4.5 total cards
• Odds: -112 (FanDuel)

Neither of these clubs are terribly prone to losing their heads, as both Roma and Leverkusen average 2.08 cautions per match in Europa League play. Looking at domestic action, the story is the same, with both sides in or around the bottom of their respective leagues in both fouls conceded and yellow cards earned.

The real kicker here, however, is referee Michael Oliver. You have to go back to February to find a match across any competition where he showed more than four yellow cards, a run of 14 consecutive games where he seems to keep things under wraps. In his last Europa League game, he kept a match between Fenerbahce and Sevilla — a seemingly tense affair between clubs from leagues where cautions fly — to just four cautions, two to each side.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen prop bet

• Pick: Moussa Diaby to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +120 (FanDuel)

Nobody is more influential to the Bayer attack than 23-year-old French international Moussa Diaby, who is a goal contribution machine both domestically and abroad. Diaby has no problems contributing away from home, as four of his six European goal contributions (three goals & one assist) have come on the road.

While Roma are sure to maintain a defensive approach to this match, they've been shaky of late, failing to keep a clean sheet in five straight league games.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen live stream, TV channel