With Manchester United battling for survival amidst the top of the Premier League table, it's possible that the club limps across the finish line and puts its chances at securing a European place next season in peril.
An incredibly difficult fixture list to end the season plus a host of injuries and squad disruptions means the Red Devils are sweating the finish to the campaign.
Cristiano Ronaldo is on the sidelines as he mourns the death of his newborn son, while Raphael Varane, Scott McTominay, Edinson Cavani, and Luke Shaw are all injured and unable to take the field. This leaves the squad dangerously thin, especially up front, as a brutal stretch of games begins to close out the campaign.
So will Manchester United miss out on Europe altogether? While the Red Devils appear to be in pole position, all is not sunshine and roses at Old Trafford as the end of the season draws near.
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When did Man United last miss out on European play?
Manchester United have been a fixture in European competitions for much of modern soccer history, especially since Sir Alex Ferguson took charge in 1986.
United have missed out on European play through sporting means just once since then, as the European ban for English teams due to the Heysel Stadium disaster of 1985 also saw United miss out on competing in Europe.
A 24-year run of consecutive European seasons came to an end in 2014-15, following a seventh-placed Premier League finish the previous term in Ferguson's first year of retirement. Prior to that, the last non-Heysel era miss for Manchester United was in 1981-82.
Man United seasons without European play since 1980
| Season | Previous League Finish | Previous European Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | 7th | Champions League (QF) |
| 1989-90* | 11th | — |
| 1988-89* | 2nd | — |
| 1987-88* | 11th | — |
| 1986-87* | 4th | — |
| 1985-86* | 4th | UEFA Cup (QF) |
| 1981-82 | 8th | UEFA Cup (R1) |
*English clubs banned from UEFA competitions
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Could Man United miss out on European play next year?
While Manchester United appear likely to secure some kind of European play next year, it's still possible that the club misses out.
The remaining schedule is extremely difficult for Manchester United, with Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal all still to go plus matchups with an in-form Christian Eriksen and Brentford as well as a Crystal Palace side that has played top teams well of late.
Man United remaining matches
| Date | Match | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Tues, Apr. 19 | Liverpool vs. Man United | 3:00 p.m. |
| Sat, Apr. 23 | Arsenal vs. Man United | 7:30 a.m. |
| Thu, Apr. 28 | Man United vs. Chelsea | 2:45 p.m. |
| Mon, May 2 | Man United vs. Brentford | 3:00 p.m. |
| Sat, May 7 | Brighton vs. Man United | 12:30 p.m. |
| Sun, May 22 | Crystal Palace vs. Man United | 11:00 a.m. |
Battle for a Champions League place
With the top four finishers in the Premier League guaranteed a Champions League place, Manchester United are not in good position to finish amongst a qualifying position.
With a three-point deficit back of fourth-placed Tottenham, plus Arsenal level on points and holding two games in hand, United are unlikely to find a way through to the top four. According to FiveThirtyEight's Premier League prediction metrics, they have just a four percent chance to secure a top four place.
Meanwhile, Tottenham lead the battle with a 64 percent chance to secure a Champions League position, while injury-struck Arsenal sit at 32 percent. Manchester United have lots of work to do in this regard, and will need a lot of luck as well.
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Battle for a Europa League or Europa Conference League place
This is where Manchester United are far more likely to finish.
Because Liverpool and Chelsea — two teams almost surely to finish in the top four — are remaining in the FA Cup, that leaves two Europa League places to be obtained in the Premier League standings, with positions five and six. Meanwhile, seventh is almost surely a Europa Conference League position given that Liverpool have won the EFL Cup and will most likely qualify for the Champions League via table position.
Therefore, despite the difficult run-in to the season, Manchester United would have to suffer a disastrous finish to the campaign for the Red Devils to miss out on Europe altogether.
Wolves, in a very poor run of form, are sitting five points back of the Red Devils and represent the first team out of the European places. Further back in ninth are Leicester City who sit nine points behind Wolves and do not represent a threat. Therefore, Man United lead the chase amongst the four teams battling for three positions.
Premier League standings
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.* | Chelsea | 62 | 30 | +41 | vs. ARS, Apr. 20 |
| 4.* | Tottenham | 57 | 32 | +18 | @ BRE, Apr. 23 |
| 5.** | Man United | 54 | 32 | +8 | @ LIV, Apr. 19 |
| 6.** | Arsenal | 54 | 31 | +8 | @ CHE, Apr. 20 |
| 7.*** | West Ham | 52 | 33 | +9 | @ CHE, Apr. 24 |
| 8. | Wolves | 49 | 32 | +5 | @ BUR, Apr. 24 |
| 9. | Leicester City | 40 | 30 | -4 | @ EVE, Apr. 20 |
| 10. | Brighton | 40 | 32 | -8 | @ MCI, Apr. 20 |
* Guaranteed Champions League place
** Guaranteed Europa League place
*** Guaranteed Europa Conference League place
How much would it cost Man United to miss Europe?
This is tough to calculate, but there are ways to find out the payouts Manchester United would miss out on by not participating in a European competition.
First, there's the Premier League merit payments to each team for its final table finish. For finishing first, Manchester City netted $50.3 million in merit-based prize money. Meanwhile, fifth-placed Leicester City earned $39.7 million, while seventh-placed Tottenham grabbed $35.7 million and the eighth-placed team Arsenal — the first team out of a European place — grabbed $31.7 million.
That's a whopping $18.6 million difference between the top club and the eighth-placed side.
Then there are the merit payments for Champions League teams. All group stage clubs in the Champions League, regardless of finish, are awarded $17.74 million, plus another $3.17 million per group stage win and $1.05 million per group stage draw. Reaching the knockout round earns $10.89 million, and those prize amounts continue to increase as the knockout stage progresses.
The Europa League prize money is less, but still significant. Group stage qualification earns a team $4.11 million, and wins in the group stage net nearly $714,000 per victory. Qualifying for the knockout round earns a team another $1-2 million (depending on group stage finish) and again, the money continues to grow the further a team progresses.
Finally, there are intangible amounts that Manchester United would miss out on as well. The lack of exposure on a worldwide scale can add up financially over the years, as Arsenal has found out over the past decade as well as Liverpool before Jurgen Klopp's arrival. That can end up reflected in a kit deal and other lost sponsorship revenue, plus a dip in kit sales.
Manchester United will want to ensure their place in a European competition for the short-term enjoyment of the fans as well as the long-term health of the club.
