Happy autumn! Believe it or not, nearly a quarter of the 2024 NFL season has already passed. And with all the upsets through three weeks, the vast majority of survivor pools have passed away. It's okay, though, because the Sporting News has another batch of best bets for you ahead of the loaded Week 4 slate.
Will the 49ers (vs. Patriots) go down as yet another heavy favorite to fall? Can the Cowboys turn things around? Are the Vikings, Seahawks, and Steelers for real? Will the Chiefs ever lose again? You've got questions, and our best bets column has answers.
MORE: Week 4 odds, lines | Early-season surprises | Survivor picks
After two weeks, our best bets have gone 17-14-2, with two best bets still hanging in the balance ahead of Monday Night Football (Commanders +7.5 at Bengals, Jaguars-Bills UNDER 46.5). We'll take a .548 winning percentage in such a volatile betting climate, but we're also not satisfied with good results. We want greatness.
Week 4 feels like a good time to start really rolling. With a few lopsided games and a handful of close spreads, we have a ton of opportunities to find value on moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop picks on BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings.
Let's get right to it, unveiling the top value wagers on the Week 4 odds boards. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy what should be another wildly entertaining weekend of football!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Cowboys -4.5 at Giants (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars)
Maybe you've heard this before, but Dak Prescott and the Cowboys own the Giants. It's almost to the level of Aaron Rodgers vs. the Bears at this point. Dallas has won six straight against New York and by an average score of 21 points. So, this week's trip to Gotham is perfect timing for Jerry Jones, who is probably about to blow a gasket.
The Cowboys' offense wasn't the problem last week. They put up 25 points and 361 passing yards against a pretty good Ravens defense, racking up 26 first downs in the process (7/13 on third down!). It's the Dallas D that has been surprisingly suspect, allowing a grand total of 888 total yards the past two weeks.
Enter Daniel Jones and Big Blue to save the day. Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers has been nasty for the G-Men, but the Cowboys' offense remains head-and-shoulders above New York. If Micah Parsons and his comrades show up and execute on Thursday night, we could be in for yet another NFC East bloodbath.
SCORE PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Giants 16
Other Week 4 spreads worth a look: Lions -4.5 vs. Seahawks (-110 on Caesars and BetMGM); Ravens -2.5 vs. Bills (-110 on Caesars); 49ers -10.5 vs Patriots (-110 on Caesars and BetMGM); Ravens -2.5 vs. Bills (shop around)
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Moneyline
Steelers -125 at Colts (Caesars and BetMGM)
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are simply amazing. Tomlin hasn't endured a losing season during his entire 18-year tenure as Pittsburgh's head coach, and the Steelers as an organization haven't finished below .500 since 2003.
Now, despite starting the season with the uncertainty of a Russell Wilson and Justin Fields QB room, this squad has started the season 3-0. Fields has looked better than ever as a Steeler, unlocking the cheat code known as George Pickens, and T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh D have been as stifling as ever.
Through three weeks, no Steelers opponent has reached 11 points. Now Tomlin's guys get to go into Indianapolis to face a shaky Anthony Richardson with top Colts wideout Michael Pittman battling back and calf issues.
Indy won ugly over the lost-looking Bears in Week 2, but don't expect the Colts to get past Pittsburgh with 306 total yards, two picks, and 3-of-12 third-down efficiency. The Steelers remain perfect with another hard-fought victory.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 20, Colts 17
Other Week 4 moneylines to consider: Titans (-110) at Dolphins (Caesars); Browns (-120) at Raiders (Caesars)
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Eagles at Buccaneers: OVER 44.5 (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars)
The Eagles' secondary has been a revolving door, so it was shocking to see Philadelphia contain a red-hot Saints offense and eke out a win in New Orleans. It was equally shocking to see the undefeated Bucs get punched in the mouth 26-7 by the winless Broncos in Tampa Bay.
Neither Philly nor Tampa has a particularly good defense, with suspect pass-rushes and borderline miserable downfield coverage. This one could be an absolute barnburner, as it's a rematch of the 2023 NFC Wild Card when the Bucs destroyed Philly 32-9. The Eagles will want to avenge that loss, while Tampa will want to bounce back after the embarrassment vs. Denver.
If A.J. Brown can suit up and Mike Evans shows up to play, we will feel even more confident in this OVER. Tampa's Chris Godwin and Philly's DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, and Dallas Goedert have already been balling. Buckle up for some fireworks.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Eagles 27, Bucs 24
Other strong Week 4 over/under bets: Saints at Falcons: OVER 43.5 (-115 on BetMGM); Broncos team total UNDER 16.5 at Jets (shop around)
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Top player props & game props
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts vs. Steelers: OVER 0.5 interceptions (-130 on DraftKings)
Richardson has been an absolute mess through the first three weeks of the season, so much so that Michael Pittman has become a "drop" candidate in fantasy football. Richardson has a league-leading six interceptions, two fumbles, and a 55.9 QB rating.
Now the second-year QB must face T.J. Watt, Patrick Queen, Minkah Fitzpatrick and the heavy-hitting Steelers defense? One pick seems like a low projection, honestly. Joe Flacco's debut in Indianapolis could begin sooner than you think.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys at Giants: OVER 9.5 total rushing attempts (-130 on DraftKings)
Dowdle has easily looked like the best running back in Dallas, although to be fair that's not saying much considering how elderly Ezekiel Elliott has looked. Dowdle's touch count has been nine, 11, and 11 in Weeks 1 through 3, but he has yet to exceed eight carries despite improving his yards-per-carry average with each new week.
That ends this week. Dowdle didn't reach double-digit carries in Week 3 because of game script, with the Cowboys needing to go into shootout mode to get back into the game against Baltimore. His eight carries still finished five ahead of Zeke, who averaged just two yards per carry. With Dallas favored on the road to win by about a touchdown, Dowdle should blast past 10 carries in this short-week divisional tilt.
Dolphins (vs. Titans): UNDER 18.5 points (-110 on BetMGM)
The Dolphins are in shambles, with starting QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion, IR) and backup Skylar Thompson (ribs) both on the mend. Miami's offense looked putrid in Seattle last week, and now it must face Jeffery Simmons, T'Vondre Sweat and the Titans.
The 'fins have scored three points since Tua went down, so it would be a shock if they could manage to put 19 on the board with Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and/or Tim Boyle. We'll take the relatively easy UNDER on Miami's team total.
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